Wed 9/8....Roads and Riches

Money supply desanguinzation, political influences and and debt debacles are the forces driving world markets...BDI 2918, stable and rising after a lean summer...overall shipping rates are near their 10 year reported mean with bribery and "lost" cargo on the rise...US rail traffic also up with over 300000 cars out and 33 billion ton/miles of freight moving..this traffic and volume represents a 6% and 7% increase YoY respectively though still 5% off peak...the CRB is generally a good lead indicator (though liquid weighted) of freight rates and the CRB is strong at 493 with the 200 MA day in a linear uptrend since March..the DBA is showing a corresponding uptrend in the last few months...Copper in London this AM 7519 USD/tonne...up about 14% since the beginning of July...demand driven and strong...Minneapolis wheat was 750 cents a bushel this AM, spiking up on perceived scarcity...Oil 74.5 USD/can today..long is a no brainer here...Nat Gas still cheap with
supply/demand being the driver..the smart money is sniffing nat gas and it smells like huge future potential...Gold is 1257 USD on the spot...safe,strong and heaven hunting for now but driven by perceived safety, not physical need.....USD 82.11 in Dixieland, off about 8% since June...the S&P was 1100 this AM, range bound and flat since June...interestingly, US equities have lost their inverse relationship to the dollar of late...regardless, the big investment houses continue to pump equities neglecting the last 10 years of losses in a self fulfilling delusion of stupidity and clouded rhetoric, collecting fees in glass towers built by the money of people who worked and made something...{P.S, I just left Manhattan where I met with the big Bank and Trust companies best minds and their resulting projections...my fucking dog is capable of more original thinking than the "teams of experts" most people hand over their money over to}..it is no wonder people
would rather invest with the PE guys and independents...Bonds remain strong on low inflation and the perceived safety of debt obligation for the time being..If I were a bond guy, I would be sleeping with my gun under the pillow so I could pull the sell trigger when needed...when bonds sell off, it won't be pretty...Real Estate prices stateside continue to unspool to the bottom with unemployment and debt to wage realizations pulling the anchor down....many RE agents now driving 3 series BMWs, down from 7s....pigs...of note, Chinese RE continues strong despite Government tightening attempts as sheer demand continues to be the driver.....from the Emerald Palace, the Wizard of Oba says roads and bridges and 7 more layers of bureaucracy should solve our woes...I guess Oba and Congress feel that with enough asphalt, paperwork, Government jobs and debt laden entitlements some money should flow down to the masses and reelection chances will increase...so far
the money supply and the economy have not responded to the "print more money" policies but if we buy enough of our own paper, Keynesian theory will prevail....OK, I'll shake it out....Stateside, GDP is essentially negative...Banks want to lend but there are few borrowers ...Unemployment is still 20% plus in the shadows...Fed Reserve quantitative easing continues...RE and CRE are still unwinding...the lawmakers are pushing debt and the resulting inflation induced perceived wealth as policy....Overseas, China economy looks strong but tempered by the state...Europe has one strong economy, achtung, but more debt is hidden behind feigned language barriers and accounting irregularities, be careful...Norway is strong but socialized...India is growing "optimistically" as might be surmised by those that know them...India is difficult to analyze fiscally no matter how many people answer the phones over there...the productive and often resource based economies of
Australia, NZ, the South China Sea countries, some S America and China should remain strongest....Investing?...Hard assets, metals, oil, farms and food, lumber....remember, like water, investments are better the farther upstream you go....make something...that's it from the skunk works....I own gold, the miners, a nat gas well, EMR, STO, MSTR, NICE, AGU, the yuan and some dollars...and some other shit I can't remember....out,W

Wed. 7/7...Running on Empty, Running On

De-leveraging, tight credit markets and government economic experiments are the forces driving world markets... BDI 2127, dramatically down 45% in the last 2 months with all shipping rates lower regardless of vessel type or size...I don't invest around the BDI but like it....it is an old London house, it is updated daily and it is a good overlay tool against commodity prices as most metals, grains and raw materials must be moved by ship...As noted last week, the Greeks dictate much of this trade and deception/manipulation is common...BTW, BDI is flat YoY...US rail traffic shows 288,000 freight cars out, rolling 32 billion ton miles of freight, cars and cargo up 11% YoY...no Greeks involved...CRB 471, flat and stable....London copper 6522 USD/tonne, up 200 bucks this week, stable...Oil 73.24 USD for the light/sweet...stable...Gold 1192 USD on the spot at 1000EDT, off this week but that only strengthens it's base...GLD(the ETF) holds 60 billion dollars on paper, returning 14% YTD...S&P
1037 off marginally on the week but down 8% for the year...where's your money?...Inflows continue to US Treasuries with low yields and high coupons being the indicator...safety over return= worldwide economic decay...need more proof, how about VIX 30+...Last weeks unemployment numbers show continued weakness with official unem rate at 9.5%, shadow at 20%...these numbers reflect structural problems stemming from wages sticking above equilibrium, weighty government fees and regulations, a high minimum wage and welfare/government benefits reducing the incentive to work (evergrowing entitlement mentality)...adding to this decay are a mismatch of labor skills to needs...cheered up yet?...Look, we are experiencing a huge deleveraging...the CDO ghost is still around and even with the money spouts marked "Keynes" wide open, many economies (x China, Australia, New Z) are still contracting...high unemployment, declining RE markets and contracting money supply are manifestations of this decay...The
Wizard of Ob and his friend "print more money"
Ben are being snowballed by past and present debt creation and government growth...But remember the Keynesian creed, it is repeated by the Fed every new day, “By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”....for the Wizard and Ben, increasing liquidity, money supply and credit are the keys to Keynesian fulfillment and economic joy....look, for you econ minors, Obama is trying to shift the aggregate demand curve upward on the demand line by adding reserves...his problem is the demand line is flattening so instead of expansion we are witnessing a contracting GDP and no inflation (yet) as the graph would predict...add a "sticky" price and wage environment and, voila, here we are....the solution from DC?...look at the gas gauge, it is showing empty but I'm pretty sure the Emerald Palace and the Fed will just keep driving, inflation is the only way to refill the tank....of note, Saudis are collecting up BP which may stabilize credit swaps..Ideas? I still like currency arbitrage and related trades...we are in the new normal, get used to it...Disclose..I got Gold, oil, the
miners, STO, EMR, MSTR, NICE, a gas well..hard assets rule...Out, W

"Words ought to be a little wild, for they are the assault of thoughts on the unthinking." JMK...I never said he was wrong

Wednesday. June 30....BEN AND BARACK DO A MONEY RAIN DANCE IN THE ROSE GARDEN

Financial reform farces, Chinese math questions and government debt are the primary influences on world markets this week...the hard drives are mated to the glow box so headline induced volatility algorithms are the money makers of late...the profit is in the swing trades so the big houses will ice the CPUs and play again, believe me.....BDI 2447, shipping rates continue to fall though the CRB remains fairly flat at 465 with oil, grain and metal prices(x steel)off marginally this week but stable exponentially in spite of electronic pulses...the shipping rate declines reflect Greek shippers refusing to speak German and clouding revenues...Copper 6584 USD/tonne in London this AM, dead flat WoW but up 30% YoY...about half of the copper in the world goes to Asia, with the Americas getting 32% and Africa getting 5%...copper consumption is a good indicator of expansion and growth and you figure it out from there...Oil 76+ USD a barrel this AM NY merc...RBOB 2.11 USD July delivery...RBOB linear, rising and strong in the last month with late summer contracts falling but up is the trend and peak oil is the driver...Nat. Gas 4.71 USD/mmBTU...a mmBTU the amount of nrg in 8 gallons of gasoline and equals 27 cubic meters spatially...point is, it's cheap.....USD index closed yesterday at 86.13 up a little in a bumpy week, but safer than euros...Gold 1240 USD/oz flat on the week but uptrend remains embedded...like it or not, gold up is the only decent long trend out there...Consumer Confidence tanked last month in spite of Ben and Barack together in the Rose Garden doing a money rain dance...their behavior is a travesty of the United States constitution...sorry, no politics....Chicago PMI flatting to 59, off 7% but production apparently ramping and a number above 50 indicates growth...remember, this report reflects orders, not payments or fulfillments...S&P 1075 at the open...off 5% in the last week...VIX 34.14, traders hiding under the covers.....FTSE 4900 GMT 9AM...off 5% WoW also...US GDP last week showed +2.7% growth, essentially this number reflects negative transaction growth with +3 being break-even...10 year Treasury below 3% at 2.94...safe parking but a reflection of little market confidence and a reduced risk appetite worldwide...of note, Tesla motors IPO up 40% yesterday, you would have to be a fucking idiot to buy a car company but it proves Goldman Sachs still has the Midas touch....New home sales down 33% in May with refi's being the only boost...lumber index continues to slide....expect no gains in the nationwide RE broad market with the inflated CRE values lurking on bank balance sheets...again, CRE values are simply a cash flow equation and that equation is negative......the RE and CRE cloud is 40% of the US economy and I guess you can get the idea from there....need more?...Job growth is nonexistent a la ADP (+13,000 nationwide)
with government compliance regulations, tax rate increases and an unpredictable future planning environment killing most business incentive and hirings...commercial loan apps reflect this disease...Good News?...yea, the hedge fund guys dodged a bullet and get to keep more of their money which should help the lobster fishermen and wine importers for awhile longer....no sugar coating this week...need some ideas? Currency arbitrage....that's it from the skunkworks.....Disclose...I own Gold, USO, MSTR, NICE, EMR, STO, a nat gas well, some US Dollars, the yuan, the miners and I am buying some apple trees.....out, W

BARACK AND THE BEAN STALK

Date: Tuesday, June 22, 2010, 1:36 PM

International monetary flows, wealth erosion and credit afflictions continue to be the driving influences on most world markets.... BDI 2694, off...Copper
6315 USD/ton in London this AM, off this week also....

If you want gold, it will cost you 1237 USD a troy oz on the comex...

A similar measure of Caribbean marijuana on the streets of Manhattan is about 330 USD for comparison sake...

S&P 1113 at the open, up marginally in a choppy week...VIX 25, dropping but traders wary...

Europe and Asia were also choppy and marginally up WoW except for the Hang Seng which has traded up 5% this week on yuan float and the associated perception of Chinese {free} market stability...mark your calenders because this restrictive easing from the Chinese government will start a global commodity inflationary cycle which will end at your wallet...

Interestingly, rumor is the Chinese banks are buying dollars..this is simply a hedge play....these guys are smarter than the Harvard guys running DC...

Oil 77.7 USD/barrel on the NY merc this AM, strong and stable this week...US grain futures also strengthening as predicted...United States May CPI out at

the end of last week showed a .2% overall decline...ex food and nrg it was up .1% in May...CPI is up 2% YoY and up 1% less food and nrg YoY...NAR housing numbers out today...showing a May decline of 2.3% in transactions (with 31% being foreclosure resales) and prices off 1.5% YoY but up of late...

expect further decay in RE and CRE...what else?...

Schwarzenegger wants to cut pensions in Cali...the Richmond Fed today said manufacturing was basically flat in the South with a slight uptick in
unemployment...manufacturers reported rising costs of both raw and finished goods, but they expect these costs to remain moderate on light demand....

OK, I'm gunna shake it out for you...Arcane as it may seem, the velocity on money has slowed dramatically since the beginning of 2009...this
abatement in transactions began with the unwinding of the CDO markets and has culminated in the tight credit environment we are experiencing today...

declining money flow is further evidenced in deflating real estate markets, enhanced high unemployment and restricted inflation...Barack and his Fed
governors know they need to increase the money flow and credit cycles to increase economic prosperity and resulting social contentment... so?, "magic beans?"...Barack, with Ben holding his green watering can, planted the beans of economic expansion with low interest rates and by stuffing the coffers of the reserve banks with free money....

But the beanstalk hasn't grown...late MIT prof Paul Samuelson was right this time ” You can force money on the system in exchange for government bonds, its close money substitute; but you can’t make the money circulate against new goods and new jobs." ...Banks aren't lending , people do not want to borrow or spend, governments are broke, the velocity of money is declining...

Where to?...in the fairy tale, Jack stole the gold, faced and killed the giant, kept some riches but could never wash the blood of the giant off his hands...Barack, like Jack, is facing the giant, the giant of economic expansion...but Barack's beans haven't grown even though Ben has been pouring money out...don't worry Barack has now planted the seeds he got from Keynes...with enough debt and spending, this seed will definitely grow...or should I say inflate until everyone is fooled by apparent
wealth and content....But like Jack, Barack will never be able to wash his hands of the...debt.....STFW....OK? ideas...use the leveraged ETFs short...most the ETFs are trading like stock, do not reflect the contracts and are bullshit....Gold,though definitely a fear/stability play, should be held until it stops working...it has room to run...As always, oil...hard assets....make something or grow food....that's it from the skunk works....Disclose;I own STO,USO, nat gas, yuans, MSTR, NICE, EMR, gold and the miners...I might buy the spider...or a place in France....W