Financial reform farces, Chinese math questions and government debt are the primary influences on world markets this week...the hard drives are mated to the glow box so headline induced volatility algorithms are the money makers of late...the profit is in the swing trades so the big houses will ice the CPUs and play again, believe me.....BDI 2447, shipping rates continue to fall though the CRB remains fairly flat at 465 with oil, grain and metal prices(x steel)off marginally this week but stable exponentially in spite of electronic pulses...the shipping rate declines reflect Greek shippers refusing to speak German and clouding revenues...Copper 6584 USD/tonne in London this AM, dead flat WoW but up 30% YoY...about half of the copper in the world goes to Asia, with the Americas getting 32% and Africa getting 5%...copper consumption is a good indicator of expansion and growth and you figure it out from there...Oil 76+ USD a barrel this AM NY merc...RBOB 2.11 USD July delivery...RBOB linear, rising and strong in the last month with late summer contracts falling but up is the trend and peak oil is the driver...Nat. Gas 4.71 USD/mmBTU...a mmBTU the amount of nrg in 8 gallons of gasoline and equals 27 cubic meters spatially...point is, it's cheap.....USD index closed yesterday at 86.13 up a little in a bumpy week, but safer than euros...Gold 1240 USD/oz flat on the week but uptrend remains embedded...like it or not, gold up is the only decent long trend out there...Consumer Confidence tanked last month in spite of Ben and Barack together in the Rose Garden doing a money rain dance...their behavior is a travesty of the United States constitution...sorry, no politics....Chicago PMI flatting to 59, off 7% but production apparently ramping and a number above 50 indicates growth...remember, this report reflects orders, not payments or fulfillments...S&P 1075 at the open...off 5% in the last week...VIX 34.14, traders hiding under the covers.....FTSE 4900 GMT 9AM...off 5% WoW also...US GDP last week showed +2.7% growth, essentially this number reflects negative transaction growth with +3 being break-even...10 year Treasury below 3% at 2.94...safe parking but a reflection of little market confidence and a reduced risk appetite worldwide...of note, Tesla motors IPO up 40% yesterday, you would have to be a fucking idiot to buy a car company but it proves Goldman Sachs still has the Midas touch....New home sales down 33% in May with refi's being the only boost...lumber index continues to slide....expect no gains in the nationwide RE broad market with the inflated CRE values lurking on bank balance sheets...again, CRE values are simply a cash flow equation and that equation is negative......the RE and CRE cloud is 40% of the US economy and I guess you can get the idea from there....need more?...Job growth is nonexistent a la ADP (+13,000 nationwide)
with government compliance regulations, tax rate increases and an unpredictable future planning environment killing most business incentive and hirings...commercial loan apps reflect this disease...Good News?...yea, the hedge fund guys dodged a bullet and get to keep more of their money which should help the lobster fishermen and wine importers for awhile longer....no sugar coating this week...need some ideas? Currency arbitrage....that's it from the skunkworks.....Disclose...I own Gold, USO, MSTR, NICE, EMR, STO, a nat gas well, some US Dollars, the yuan, the miners and I am buying some apple trees.....out, W
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