Wednesday. June 30....BEN AND BARACK DO A MONEY RAIN DANCE IN THE ROSE GARDEN

Financial reform farces, Chinese math questions and government debt are the primary influences on world markets this week...the hard drives are mated to the glow box so headline induced volatility algorithms are the money makers of late...the profit is in the swing trades so the big houses will ice the CPUs and play again, believe me.....BDI 2447, shipping rates continue to fall though the CRB remains fairly flat at 465 with oil, grain and metal prices(x steel)off marginally this week but stable exponentially in spite of electronic pulses...the shipping rate declines reflect Greek shippers refusing to speak German and clouding revenues...Copper 6584 USD/tonne in London this AM, dead flat WoW but up 30% YoY...about half of the copper in the world goes to Asia, with the Americas getting 32% and Africa getting 5%...copper consumption is a good indicator of expansion and growth and you figure it out from there...Oil 76+ USD a barrel this AM NY merc...RBOB 2.11 USD July delivery...RBOB linear, rising and strong in the last month with late summer contracts falling but up is the trend and peak oil is the driver...Nat. Gas 4.71 USD/mmBTU...a mmBTU the amount of nrg in 8 gallons of gasoline and equals 27 cubic meters spatially...point is, it's cheap.....USD index closed yesterday at 86.13 up a little in a bumpy week, but safer than euros...Gold 1240 USD/oz flat on the week but uptrend remains embedded...like it or not, gold up is the only decent long trend out there...Consumer Confidence tanked last month in spite of Ben and Barack together in the Rose Garden doing a money rain dance...their behavior is a travesty of the United States constitution...sorry, no politics....Chicago PMI flatting to 59, off 7% but production apparently ramping and a number above 50 indicates growth...remember, this report reflects orders, not payments or fulfillments...S&P 1075 at the open...off 5% in the last week...VIX 34.14, traders hiding under the covers.....FTSE 4900 GMT 9AM...off 5% WoW also...US GDP last week showed +2.7% growth, essentially this number reflects negative transaction growth with +3 being break-even...10 year Treasury below 3% at 2.94...safe parking but a reflection of little market confidence and a reduced risk appetite worldwide...of note, Tesla motors IPO up 40% yesterday, you would have to be a fucking idiot to buy a car company but it proves Goldman Sachs still has the Midas touch....New home sales down 33% in May with refi's being the only boost...lumber index continues to slide....expect no gains in the nationwide RE broad market with the inflated CRE values lurking on bank balance sheets...again, CRE values are simply a cash flow equation and that equation is negative......the RE and CRE cloud is 40% of the US economy and I guess you can get the idea from there....need more?...Job growth is nonexistent a la ADP (+13,000 nationwide)
with government compliance regulations, tax rate increases and an unpredictable future planning environment killing most business incentive and hirings...commercial loan apps reflect this disease...Good News?...yea, the hedge fund guys dodged a bullet and get to keep more of their money which should help the lobster fishermen and wine importers for awhile longer....no sugar coating this week...need some ideas? Currency arbitrage....that's it from the skunkworks.....Disclose...I own Gold, USO, MSTR, NICE, EMR, STO, a nat gas well, some US Dollars, the yuan, the miners and I am buying some apple trees.....out, W

BARACK AND THE BEAN STALK

Date: Tuesday, June 22, 2010, 1:36 PM

International monetary flows, wealth erosion and credit afflictions continue to be the driving influences on most world markets.... BDI 2694, off...Copper
6315 USD/ton in London this AM, off this week also....

If you want gold, it will cost you 1237 USD a troy oz on the comex...

A similar measure of Caribbean marijuana on the streets of Manhattan is about 330 USD for comparison sake...

S&P 1113 at the open, up marginally in a choppy week...VIX 25, dropping but traders wary...

Europe and Asia were also choppy and marginally up WoW except for the Hang Seng which has traded up 5% this week on yuan float and the associated perception of Chinese {free} market stability...mark your calenders because this restrictive easing from the Chinese government will start a global commodity inflationary cycle which will end at your wallet...

Interestingly, rumor is the Chinese banks are buying dollars..this is simply a hedge play....these guys are smarter than the Harvard guys running DC...

Oil 77.7 USD/barrel on the NY merc this AM, strong and stable this week...US grain futures also strengthening as predicted...United States May CPI out at

the end of last week showed a .2% overall decline...ex food and nrg it was up .1% in May...CPI is up 2% YoY and up 1% less food and nrg YoY...NAR housing numbers out today...showing a May decline of 2.3% in transactions (with 31% being foreclosure resales) and prices off 1.5% YoY but up of late...

expect further decay in RE and CRE...what else?...

Schwarzenegger wants to cut pensions in Cali...the Richmond Fed today said manufacturing was basically flat in the South with a slight uptick in
unemployment...manufacturers reported rising costs of both raw and finished goods, but they expect these costs to remain moderate on light demand....

OK, I'm gunna shake it out for you...Arcane as it may seem, the velocity on money has slowed dramatically since the beginning of 2009...this
abatement in transactions began with the unwinding of the CDO markets and has culminated in the tight credit environment we are experiencing today...

declining money flow is further evidenced in deflating real estate markets, enhanced high unemployment and restricted inflation...Barack and his Fed
governors know they need to increase the money flow and credit cycles to increase economic prosperity and resulting social contentment... so?, "magic beans?"...Barack, with Ben holding his green watering can, planted the beans of economic expansion with low interest rates and by stuffing the coffers of the reserve banks with free money....

But the beanstalk hasn't grown...late MIT prof Paul Samuelson was right this time ” You can force money on the system in exchange for government bonds, its close money substitute; but you can’t make the money circulate against new goods and new jobs." ...Banks aren't lending , people do not want to borrow or spend, governments are broke, the velocity of money is declining...

Where to?...in the fairy tale, Jack stole the gold, faced and killed the giant, kept some riches but could never wash the blood of the giant off his hands...Barack, like Jack, is facing the giant, the giant of economic expansion...but Barack's beans haven't grown even though Ben has been pouring money out...don't worry Barack has now planted the seeds he got from Keynes...with enough debt and spending, this seed will definitely grow...or should I say inflate until everyone is fooled by apparent
wealth and content....But like Jack, Barack will never be able to wash his hands of the...debt.....STFW....OK? ideas...use the leveraged ETFs short...most the ETFs are trading like stock, do not reflect the contracts and are bullshit....Gold,though definitely a fear/stability play, should be held until it stops working...it has room to run...As always, oil...hard assets....make something or grow food....that's it from the skunk works....Disclose;I own STO,USO, nat gas, yuans, MSTR, NICE, EMR, gold and the miners...I might buy the spider...or a place in France....W